Sean Koerner – FantasyPros' most-accurate draft ranker from 2019-21 – is breaking down his positional rankings and draft strategy for 2023.
Quarterbacks | Running Backs
Fantasy WR Rankings & Tiers
You could make a case for taking any one of these WRs first overall in the draft. I only have a two-point difference between Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, but Burrow's recent calf injury would give me pause in taking Chase ahead of Jefferson at this point. Either way, these WRs are a great way to start your draft and having Cooper Kupp'fall to you in the 6-7 overall pick range seems like one of the best values of Round 1.
Takeaway: Draft all three of these WRs at ADP
It seems crazy that Tyreek Hill would post career-high numbers for targets (170), receptions (119) and yards (1,710) after leaving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to play for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. But that just shows how much of a centerpiece he was in this offense. Hill saw a career-high 32% target rate and led the league with a 3.1 yards per route run rate last season. I don't think I would consider him over any of the Tier 1 WRs, but he is clearly ahead of the next group of WRs, which puts him in a tier of his own.
Takeaway: Target Hill at ADP
This group of stud WR1s all go be tween the end of Round 1 or mid/late Round 2.
Due to all of the chaos/news that has been happening recently to the RB position (surprise, expect more!) I think it's critical to scoop up either Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley after Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce and the top-four WRs are off the board. You will likely have one of these WRs make it back to you in Round 2. That typically means Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown will all be off the board for your next pick, but I have no problem targeting Garrett Wilson or St. Brown.
Davante Adams does worry me considering he doesn't seem like a good fit with Jimmy Garoppolo and if Garoppolo were ever to miss time (which always seems likely), Adams will be more of a WR2 option. However, if he's the last remaining option from this tier, I'll take him.
If both Robinson and Barkley are take n (which is possible if you are picking 10-12 overall), I would consider drafting two WRs from this tier and then taking 1-2 RBs on the Round 3-4 turn.
Takeaway: Target this Tier heavily once McCaffrey, Ekeler, Kelce and Tiers 1-2 of WRs are off the board
Both Jaylen Waddle and Tee Higgins are the No. 2 target on their team, but they're in offenses that can produce multiple WR1 options. They're excellent picks toward the end of the second round, especially if you landed McCaffrey/Ekeler/Kelce with your first pick.
This is also the time the top-three QBs (Mahomes/Allen/Hurts) go in a hurry. I'd consider one of those QBs if I was able to land Jefferson, Chase or Kupp with my first pick. I think it's too risky to go the first two rounds without a WR this year.
Takeaway: Great mid/late Round 2 options, especially for those who took an RB or TE in Round 1
This batch of WRs typically goes in the 3rd-4th Round. It's a pretty valuable Tier because it goes at a time when the RB position starts to get dicey and it's not a great time to target QB/TE. If you are drafting in the 7-12 slots, there is a chance you could land two WRs from this Tier, which would be ideal if you started the first couple of rounds targeting other positions.
Amari Cooper is usually the last WR drafted from this Tier, which means you can usually get him in the 4th. He had the 6th highest share of team air yards last season and stands to benefit a ton if Deshaun Watson is able to have a bounce-back season.
Chris Olave is going much earlier than Cooper and while I love Olave as a talent, I do wonder if Derek Carr will be a slight downgrade. Olave saw 24 targets 20+ yards downfield which was the 10th most in the league last season. Andy Dalton was 11th (out of 38 qualified QBs) in catchable target rate on p asses 20+ yards downfield, while Derek Carr ranked 24th. Olave also took advantage of both Michael Thomas/Jarvis Landry missing most of the 2022 season. If Michael Thomas is able to stay healthy for most of 2023, it could eat into Olave's target share to make him more of a mid-range WR2, than a fringe WR1/2 (where he is being drafted).
Takeaway: Fade Olave at ADP, target Cooper at ADP. Overall, this is a valuable Tier because it's during a time when you'll want to continue to stock up on WRs and it's a shaky time to be targeting QB/RB/TE.
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Both of these WRs have the talent to produce as a Tier 5+ wideout this year, but they also have a few more question marks.
It's been nearly two years since we've seen Calvin Ridley play at a high level. There's a chance he could be a bit rusty, similar to Deshaun Watson last year, but he&# 39;s still at the tail end of his prime at 28 and is now paired with one of the best young QBs in the league. If you recall, I've always been high on Ridley and think he's worth taking a flier on here, but I prefer landing his teammate Christian Kirk, who goes a could rounds later.
Jerry Jeudy will benefit if new HC Sean Payton is able to get Russell Wilson to have a bounce-back season. Jeudy's value recently went up a bit after Tim Patrick suffered yet another season-ending injury before Week 1. These two WRs offer a nice consolation prize if you missed out on grabbing 2+ WRs by the end of Tier 5. You should definitely have at least 2 by the time this Tier is off the board.
Takeaway: Target Jerry Jeudy at ADP. You should probably have at least 2 WRs before this WR is off the board.
We need to land a No. 3 WR by the time this tier is off the board, or even start stocking up our bench with another WR3 option . The best values are Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk and Mike Evans, while Terry McLaurin, Drake London and Mike Williams go a tad too early.
Landing Christian Kirk or Tyler Lockett near the end of the sixth round is one of the more valuable picks at the position because you are getting a WR2/3 option for cheap, but it's also when the WR position starts to take a significant drop. The drop-off from WR31-50 is 31 points and it's a range where you don't want to be relying on any of them as your WR3 as they all typically have a wide range of outcomes, which is perfect for your bench.
Michael Pittman Jr. has the widest range of outcomes in this Tier. Anthony Richardson will likely become the Colts' starting QB at some point in his rookie season, so the question is when? He's going to need quite a bit of work to adjust to the NFL as a passer but will lean on his rushing ability a ton bail him out. Both factors will make it tough for Pittman to maintain low-end WR2 value. However, when Gardner Minshew is under center, the Colts' passing attack will be much more potent and Pittman may even be able to post high-end WR1 numbers. That could happen for at least the first few games, so just realize that if you land Pittman, you may want to sell high and trade him away if he gets off to a hot start with Minshew.
Takeaway: Target Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk, and Mike Evans at ADP. Fade Terry McLaurin, Drake London, and Mike Williams at ADP.
Jordan Addison is my favorite rookie WR and the only one I think should be drafted ahead of ADP.