Let's start with the good news: Much like last week's Butterfield Bermuda Championship, this week's World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba is similarly on a shorter course in a tropical location where birdies will come in abundance. If you studied up for that test, you should at least be semi-prepared already for this one.
And now the “bad” news, which really isn't all that bad: Unlike last week's event, this one includes some big-name performers who will tilt the odds – and potentially, the leaderboard – in their favor.
We're fresh off an Occam's Razor result, which states that “entities should not be multiplied beyond necessity.” In other words, doubling down on our longshot plays wasn't the best idea. Sometimes the simplest explanation is also the correct explanation, which helps explain why Seamus Power, the highest-ranked player in the field, earned the title.
Power entered last week as the world's 48th-ranked player. This week's field features 11 players ranked above that number, including five of the top 16 – Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau, Billy Horschel and two-time defending champion Viktor Hovland.
Looking to become the first back-to-back-to-back winner of a PGA TOUR event since Steve Stricker three-peated at the John Deere Classic in 2009-'11, Hovland's success should offer a pretty clear window into which skills are necessary at El Camaleon Golf Course, and which ones aren't.
Last season, the Norwegian ranked 15th in strokes gained on approach shots but dead last in strokes gained around the greens. On a 7,017-yard track with large, resort-style greens, there's an obvious focus on the former, not the latter. Delving even deeper, previous recent winners include Brendon Todd, Matt Kuchar, Pat Perez and Graeme McDowell – their commonalities existing in the realm of accuracy over power.
We should be seeking elite-level ball-strikers who can pile up birdies in bunches, which is where I'll start my picks.
Outright Winner
It's been a weird year for Collin Morikawa, whose game has alternated from solid to very solid, with a few peaks and valleys in between. He's posted five top-five finishes during this calendar year but rarely has been in serious contention coming down the stretch on a Sunday afternoon. If that's his baseline performance level, though, then we should still be optimistic that another peak is coming soon.
I like him for a few reasons this week. The first is that his elite iron play should fit this course, as he ranked third in strokes gained on approach shots last season and is already 10th after two so-so results in this one.
The second is that he's never played here before. I get it, that alone is often viewed as a demerit in the category of experience, but I'm reading into his rationale. Deciding to play here for the first time likely means Morikawa wants one last chance to step on the gas pedal and end his year on a high note.
He's one of the players on whom I've been waiting for a win, and he knows this is his last chance in the 2022 calendar year to claim one. It was close, as you'll see in the next section, but recent history suggests we shouldn't look too far past the shorter numbers.
Which leads to the final reason: In six events so far during the fall portion of the PGA TOUR schedule, winners have owned average pre-tourney odds of 33/1 (according to the numbers at golfodds.com), with only Mackenzie Hughes, who was 100/1 at the Sanderson Farms, bigger than a 30/1 price. While this feels like the right time of year to play some longshots, that hasn't been the case.
Other OADers
If Morikawa is my 1A for this one, then Grillo is 1B. This might've been switched around if Grillo's odds were double those of Morikawa, but at these opening prices, this is the preferred order.
In six previous starts at Mayakoba, he owns four results of 15th or better, and 19 of his 22 rounds have been under-par. This just happens to align with some much-improved play as of late, with a pair of top-fives in his last four starts. While his game isn't on the same level as that of Morikawa, Grillo owns a similar skillset, which is to say, we're rarely concerned about his ball-striking, and if the putter gets hot – or at least tepid – he should contend once again.