Before we break down the final full-field event on the PGA TOUR for this calendar year, a few words about Tony Finau, who cruised to a victory at the Cadence Bank Houston Open over the weekend.
As we might say about an emerging linebacker who keeps disrupting the opposing team's backfield or the power forward who creates unique matchup issues: This guy is gonna be a problem.
I say this in the most flattering way possible, of course. Finau was long known as a player with immense talent who couldn't quite get the job done when it mattered most, winning just once – in an alternate-field event, at that – in his first 185 career starts.
That futility is now a thing of the past, though, as he's won four times in his past 30 events (and three times in his last seven starts). The proverbial lid is officially off, as he's found growing confidence in his own immense abilities during these opportunities.
“Sometimes you just don’t know what the day’s going to bring,” he said after the four-stroke victory. “Those emotions you just have to fight throughout the day, and I was able to fight them and just execute when I needed to. I definitely have the confidence to win, and I showed that out there today.”
There are those who will insist that Finau still isn't much of a closer, pointing out that his three wins this year – at the 3M Open, Rocket Mortgage Classic and in Houston – came against inferior fields at tournaments which are hardly considered the most important.
This isn't untrue, but my counterpoint is that this is what the journey to a major championship looks like. There are very few players who win a big one without some struggles along the way, or at least without a learning curve on how to win.
Finau has started to figure it all out. There's never been any denying his world-class talents. Throw a healthy dose of confidence into the recipe, and you've got a player seemingly on the verge of major success.
I get it: Many observers (and bettors) will remain forever skeptical until they see it, but this is the part where I'll remind you that no player ever had the experience of winning a major until he won his first. It sounds obvious, but believing something can't happen just because it hasn't happened previously is a theory which will result in being wrong an awful lot.
With four top fives and 10 top 10s in 26 career major appearances, Finau seems primed to make that leap now that he's learned how to win at the highest level.
With his most recent win, Finau helped further a trend during the fall portion of the schedule – one which probably delights the folks at PGA TOUR HQ but discourages bettors trying to find a sleeper. This is supposed to be Longshot SZN, but instead we've been treated to a bunch of players at somewhat short odds who have won these events. Here are those numbers, according to the archive at golfodds.com:
| Player | Tournament | Odds and Place on Odds Board |
|---|---|---|
| Max Homa | Fortinet Championship | 18/1, T1 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | Sanderson Farms Championship | 100/1, T44 |
| Tom Kim | Shriners Children’s Open | 25/1, 5 |
| Keegan Bradley | ZOZO Championship | 30/1, T9 |
| Rory McIlroy | THE CJ CUP | 7/1, 1 |
| Seamus Power | Butterfield Bermuda Championship | 20/1, T1 |
| Russell Henley | WWT Championship at Mayakoba | 35/1, T9 |
| Tony Finau | Cadence Bank Houston Open | 16/1, T3 |
As you can see, only one of the first eight winners this season owned pre-tourney odds greater than 35/1, and only one of 'em was outside the top 10 on the initial board–thank you, Mr. Hughes.
All of which brings us to this week's RSM Classic, which over the past half-dozen years has served as a total dichotomy of what we've witnessed this year.
| Year | Winner | Odds and Place on Odds Board |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Talor Gooch | 40/1, T11 |
| 2020 | Robert Streb | 300/1, T113 |
| 2019 | Tyler Duncan | 150/1, T67 |
| 2018 | Charles Howell III | 40/1, T12 |
| 2017 | Austin Cook | 60/1, T25 |
| 2016 | Mackenzie Hughes | 200/1, T69 |
During this time, there have been no winners from inside the top 10 on the board, nobody shorter than 40/1, and half of the winners have started with triple-digit prices.
None of that is to suggest that this is definitively the week where we finally have a longshot champion–just that there's at least some reason for optimism if you're simply hoping to cash a lottery ticket.
The other interesting trend is that this event is seemingly a perfect spot for your favorite SEC graduate, preferably one who lives nearby and serves in the de facto Sea Island Mafia, yet none of the past six winners – since Kevin Kisner claimed this title in 2015 – fit the profile. Again, that's not to say it can't happen, just that we might need to tweak the narrative a bit.
With three rounds on the Seaside Course (7,005-yard par-70) and one on the Plantation Course (7,060-yard par-72), there are certainly players who fit this one more than others.
Let's get to the picks, starting with a player who's been trending in the right direction for a while.
Outright Winner
It's somehow been almost nine full years since Stallings' last of three PGA TOUR victories, though I'm not sure we could imply that he's underachieved or underperformed during that time.
In fact, at age 37, he might've just enjoyed his best campaign so far, with seven top 10s and 12 top 25s in 31 starts last season, including a runner-up finish at the BMW Championship which got him into the TOUR Championship for the first time.
That alone is a major checkpoint toward success, if not for the confidence factor, then for the more palpable ability to set a playing schedule ahead of time and cherry-pick the events which best suit his game.
This one hasn't always suited him, as he's made the cut in 7-of-9 starts, but hasn't finished better than 29th since a T-9 back in 2016. Then again, I go back to the point that he's playing better golf than any of those previous years. He's played just three events in the new season (13th-40th-58th), but last season finished 71st in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 68th Around the Green and 44th in Putting.
None of those stats leap off the page, but we can put 'em all together and find one of the game's more well-rounded non-superstars, a guy who's performed well enough to claim that elusive next victory. This is a week where I'll have a few players on the card from this area on the board, but Stallings has as much upside as any of them.
Other OADers
I’m not gonna lie: Prior to the odds being released, Harman was on my short list of potential favorite outright plays, but I never considered he'd be this price, the second-shortest odds behind only Finau, which is a stark contrast to his 80/1 number here last year.
There was some nice symmetry with him finishing runner-up to fellow UGA Bulldog Russell Henley at Mayakoba a few weeks ago, as those are the two players I've earmarked over the past 18-24 months most due for some positive regression. Essentially, their results weren't quite equating to their performances.
I still like having some sort of Harman investment this week, despite owning just a pair of top 10s in 10 starts at a venue which should be right up his alley. For those in full-year OADs, he's certainly in the mix, not to mention for DFS or maybe in a H2H matchup at plus-money against Finau.
If you like Sepp Straka, you should love Jaeger – another player with a European flag next to his name who grew up in the South and plays his best golf on Bermuda surfaces.
Coming off a T9 last week in Houston, Jaeger has shown a high floor (just one MC in his last nine starts) and a potential ceiling that is still growing. Last year, he opened with a 66 but posted a 75 the next day to miss the cut. I'll take that as a glass-half-full analysis toward his prospects this week.
Run, don't walk, to any proverbial betting window offering up this number on Kizzire. Just as I didn't see Harman being so short, I also didn't see Kizzire being so long, not after getting into the penultimate pairing on Sunday afternoon at Mayakoba in his most recent start, eventually finishing T10, but hinting along the way that he might've found something moving forward.
I wouldn't be surprised if this number drops to something closer to 100/1 or even shorter by Thursday morning, so jump on it while it's still available.