2022 NFL win total lines are available for 31 of the league's 32 teams at Caesars Sportsbook, with the Cleveland Browns off the board until there's more clarity on how much Deshaun Watson will be available this season. If you're an NFL fan, you've probably been following all the free agency moves, trades, draft picks, injury reports, coachspeak and everything else that makes the offseason nearly as fun as the weekly grind in the fall. Along the way, you probably came to some conclusions about how good or bad certain teams are in the league.
Maybe you've looked at the Atlanta Falcons depth chart on both sides of the ball and are convinced they're not winning more than a few games. That seems to be a popular play, as the Falcons have moved from a line of six wins juiced to the Under to 5.5 wins with close to even odds on both sides. Maybe you're optimistic that the Jets are better than people expect; that's also been a popular market position, with the Over on the Jets' 5.5-win total up to -175.
Whatever the case, you've likely seen the win totals posted at sportsbooks and either taken a position in the market or started planning which moves you're going to make once we get closer to the start of the season. I'm not here to change your mind (there will be plenty of time for that later, when I share my leans and likes on every team throughout the next two months at SportsLine). But what I am going to do is share a piece of my preparation each season that s hould affect how you're taking your positions in the market.
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Spreads set on every game
After the NFL schedule is released, some books will post lines on every single game throughout the season. While these, like the NFL win totals, are based upon how strong or weak the oddsmakers think each team is, the correlation isn't 1-to-1. And because the correlation isn't 1-to-1, the every-game lines create a secondary market where you can get even better value on your positions.
Here's how it works: the spreads of each game are tied to a historical probability of the team winning the game. For example, the Rams are favored by one point against the Bills in the Week 1 opener, and that line suggests Buffalo has a 48.8 percent chance of winning the game. So I award 0.488 wins to Buffalo for Week 1. The Bills are then seven-point favorites against the Titan s, a number that suggests they'll win 75.2 percent of the time. So I award Buffalo 0.752 wins for Week 2.