We’ve reached the final chapter of the college football season, and even though the casual fan doesn’t want to see Alabama vs. Georgia again, the reality is these are clearly the best two teams in college football.
Now, when these two met a month ago, Alabama won the game, 41-24, behind 421 yards passing from Bryce Young, while Stetson Bennett threw two picks.
These two defenses showed out in the semifinal, giving up a combined 17 points and 4.4 yards per play. The question is, will we see a repeat of the SEC Championship game or a defensive slugfest?
Monday, Jan. 10 8 p.m. ET ESPN
| Alabama'Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +2.5 +100 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Georgia'Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -2.5 -120 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
Odds via'FanDuel.'Get up-to-the-minute'college football odds'here.
First off, whenever we are discussing an over/under, we have to talk about each team’s pace, and the best way to do that is to look at plays per minute. Georgia, on average, ran 2.1 plays per minute, which ranked 110th in the country, while Alabama played a little faster, averaging 2.32 plays per minute, which ranked 57th in college football.
However, in the SEC Championship, Alabama played much faster than it normally did in the regular season, running 2.75 plays per minute, while Georgia ran their normal pace.
So, you could say that Alabama playing with tempo was something that gave it an advantage, not allowing Jordan Davis and the Georgia defensive line to sub out.
Now, Alabama ran the ball all over Cincinnati’s defense in the Cotton Bowl for a staggering 301 yards and 6.7 yards per carry.
Some of the best runs from Brian Robinson Jr.'s incredible performance ??#CFBPlayoff pic.twitter.com/VM35XLmbOt
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) January 1, 2022
The Tide won’t have that type of success against Georgia, as they only ran the ball 26 times at 4.4 yards per carry, and a lot of that was because of Young.
Brian Robinson Jr. may have had over 200 yards against Cincinnati, but against Georgia’s front seven, he had only 55 yards on 16 carries, with a 44% Rushing Success Rate, which is around the national average.
So, Georgia should once again be able to shut down Alabama’s rushing attack. But the question is, can it slow down Young? The Heisman Trophy winner averaged 9.6 yards per attempt and tossed seven passes that went for 20-plus yards, which is not something we were used to seeing from a Georgia team that had the best coverage grade in the nation, per PFF.
Bryce Young: Most 20+ yard TD passes among all SEC QBs (13)@AlabamaFTBL pic.twitter.com/HdnkAGjTbU
— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) December 22, 2021
The biggest thing for Georgia is it has to put pressure on Young and make him uncomfortable.
Young is so good both when he has a clean pocket and when he’s blitzed, averaging over 8.5 yards per attempt while owning an adjusted completion percentage over 74% and a PFF passing grade over 90.
However, when he’s under pressure, his adjusted completion percentage drops to 66.7%, and his passing grade drops to 61.9.
What is most surprising about the SEC Championship game is that Georgia pressured Young 18 times, which is close to the number of times Auburn and Texas A&M got to him. But Georgia didn’t record a single sack in the game, which was the first time all season the Bama quarterback wasn’t sacked.
Obviously, the Alabama game plan in the Cotton Bowl was to run the ball, but Young didn’t have the best game. He averaged only 6.5 yards per attempt and had a 61.3 PFF passing grade, both of which were his lowest marks of the season.
It could have had something to do with how good Cincinnati’s secondary was this season, along with the fact he was without one of his top targets in John Metchie III.