2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: SEC

In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question — i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.

Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the SEC.

• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Independents
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Sun Belt
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MAC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MWC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: CUSA
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: AAC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 10
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 12

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Nick Saban warned us about the repercussions of laxening transfer restrictions. Now he's going to prove his point. Last year, Alabama lost in the title game to Georgia with a two-deep chock-full of freshmen and sophomores. Saban augmented that returning production with an insane transfer portal crop. Saban only signed five transfers, but all of them were ranked either four or five-star transfers by 247Sports. And each plugs an immediate hole: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Jermaine Burton and WR Tyler Harrell replace RB Brian Robinson Jr., WR John Metchie and WR Jameson Williams, respectively, OT Will Steen addresses the loss of OT Evan Neal and CB Eli Ricks fortifies a CB room that lost Josh Jobe and Jalyn Armour-Davis.

Simply put, this Alabama team is the best preseason CFB team of the past five years. Doesn't mean they'll win the title (but I like their odds). The offense returns only five starters, but that comes with an enormous asterisk — add the four immediate starters signed in the portal, and that number becomes nine. The other two new starters will be a top-three OT recruit at RT (JC Latham), and a top 20 WR recruit playing alongside Burton and Harrell (Ja'Corey Brooks or Christian Leary, if they can hold off the small handful of high-octane true freshmen receivers Saban just signed). QB Bryce Young is going to put up incredible numbers this fall.

If you count Ricks as a “returning starter,” Alabama's number of those on defense increases to eight. Alabama's defense was very good but not elite last year (No. 9 SP+), that difference manifesting in matchups with high-end offenses. The Tide held seven of 15 opponents to 14 points or less but coughed up 5.5 YPP to ranked teams. This year's unit looks better equipped to handle high-octane attacks. It has one of the best defenders in the modern era of college football in EDGE Will Anderson, who had 17.5 sacks and 34.5 TFL last season. Ricks and Kool-Aid McKinstry, the former No. 1 CB recruit who also joins the starting lineup this year, are both 6-foot-1 or taller cover corners who will greatly benefit from throws made under duress from Anderson and company.

This number obviously gives us zero margin-for-error: One loss burns over tickets, and cashes under tickets. I'm going over anyway. I think this Alabama team has a chance to be one of the best CFB teams of my lifetime. The schedule sets up well, too, with only one competitive OOC matchup, and no Georgia or Florida in SEC play. Brace yourself for what may be the most dominant Nick Saban team yet.

After the championship comes the hangover. The Bulldogs lost a record 15 NFL Draft picks, all of whom were taken in the first six rounds, including five defenders in Round 1. The offense more or less escaped the carnage. RBs James Cook and Zamir White were drafted, but Georgia had the nation's deepest RB room last year and has ready-made, field-tested replacements ready to go. WR George Pickens was lost, but Georgia should be able to replace his matchup-problem downfield machinations with TE/WR Arik Gilbert, the closest thing we've seen to Kyle Pitts since Pitts left college football. QB Stetson Bennett is back, and Georgia has a top-three offensive line in the country.

The historically-awesome defense is where the questions are. Only three starters return — but they're all standouts. DT Jalen Carter isn't considered a returning starter — he rotated in behind Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt and Travon Walker last year — but he's universally regarded as the best front-seven prospect in the next NFL Draft class not named Will Anderson. No team has ever had to replace this much defensive talent year over year. But Georgia's talent on that side of the ball remains as good as any team in the nation.

Fading Georgia after the Bulldogs lost so much talent might seem like a good idea — until you get a load of this schedule. The non-con is three cupcakes, and Oregon in Atlanta. The SEC slate is a dream: Georgia ducks Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi and Arkansas from the other side, drawing Auburn and Mississippi State. My numbers project Georgia as at least 14-point favorites in all 12 games. I must go over.

Jimbo Fisher beat Nick Saban with replacement-level QB Zach Calzada last year, and he spent the ensuing offseason out-recruiting and out-chirping Saban. Like Lattimer in The Program, Jimbo is clearly ready for A&M's “place at the table” with Saban's Alabama and Kirby Smart's Georgia. Unfortunately, Jimbo might need to make other reservations this fall.

Outside of the touched-by-God performance against Bama, Calzada was bad. A&M will get better QB play out of either Haynes King (whose injury opened the door for Calzada last year) or LSU transfer Max Johnson. Most programs would struggle to replace RB Isaiah Spiller, but with Devon Achane — one of the nation's fastest players — and five-star frosh LJ Johnson running behind a top-15 national OL, A&M's running attack could be even more dangerous.

The Aggies bring back five starters on defense. Four of those are defensive backs — A&M's secondary is one of the best in the nation. The front seven is where the questions are. A&M lost all four starters on the defensive line, including two draft picks and a third that should have been. Unphased, Jimbo went ballistic on the recruiting phase, signing — not a typo — six of the top-nine consensus prep defensive linemen in the nation (you wonder why Saban is sick of recruiting against him?)! This is a high-ceiling group with a reasonable floor due to the dominance of the secondary. Where the group finishes will depend on how quickly new DC DJ Durkin can coach up that young defensive line.

My numbers have A&M as the clear No. 3 team in the SEC. Unfortunately, my numbers peg A&M closer to the SEC's third-tier (LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi) than its first (Bama and UGA). Meanwhile, while Alabama and Georgia both play relatively forgiving schedules, A&M has a gauntlet, Phil Steele's No. 11 strength of schedule. Included in that is an Oct. 8 visit to Tuscaloosa. Jimbo might wake up that morning regretting his burn-the-bridge moment with Saban in June. Either way, this win total is too sharp to touch.

HC Josh Heupel has long been criminally underrated, likely because he was scapegoated by his alma mater Oklahoma following a mostly-successful four-year run as OC. In the seven years since, Heupel got back on track with a one-year stop at Utah State, proved to be one of the game's elite play-callers at Mizzou, went 28-8 as UCF's HC and then took over a dumpster fire Tennessee program and surprisingly got it into a bowl game in Year 1.

Tennessee has drawn as much “sleeper” hype as any program this summer. That's understandable. The program finally has stability heading into Year 2 of the Heupel era, and the team has ample experience back with 15 starters returning. Could Heupel lead the team to its first double-digit win campaign since 2007? He already has a downright scary offense. Eight starters return from a group that finished No. 7 SP+ last year, including QB Hendon Hooker, whom Heupel coaxed an incredible 31/3 TD/INT ratio out of last year. Tennessee's skill talent is top 10 quality nationally.

Tennessee also had strong special teams play last year (No. 12 SP+) and will again. So much will come down to whether — and how much — the No. 47 SP+ defense that returns seven starters can improve. The only big loss was DB Alontae Taylor. Even without Taylor, it would be surprising if the defense allowed 273 YPG passing again. Another area that is bound to improve: Tennessee was awful in the red zone last year, finishing No. 119 in red zone TD rate. But keep in mind that Vols defenders weren't used to Heupel's breakneck offensive pace that often had them back on the field quickly — only two defenses in the nation saw an average of more plays per game than Tennessee's. A deeper, more experienced, better-conditioned group should fare better at the end of drives in 2022.

I'd go over at 7.5 but pass at 8. I love what Heupel is building, I like this roster, and the schedule features a soft four-game OOC slate. In SEC play, only two opponents show up on the schedule that Tennessee is reasonably unlikely to beat (Alabama and Georgia). I could see Tennessee finishing anywhere between 6-6 and 10-2, but I think the Vols get the eight regular season wins they need to cash over tickets.

Brian Kelly. In Baton Rouge. A midwestern chameleon in one of CFB's most culturally-unique areas. I have no idea how this is going to play out. But if you didn't get excited when Kelly cosplayed his “Fam-mill-ee” southern drawl shortly after getting hired, you don't have a pulse. Recently, Kelly's QB derby was cut from a three-man race to two when Myles Brennan medically retired.

Garrett Nussmeier seemed to have the lead coming out of spring, but recent reports suggest Jayden Daniels has pulled ahead. This is as much an offensive philosophy question in Year 1 as it is a referendum on each player's ability: Nussmeier will complete more passes without the mobility and Daniels will stress the defense in multiple ways if you can tolerate his shoddy accuracy. Really, the biggest addition on offense is WR Kayshon Boutte, who missed the last half of last season with an injury. Boutte has a 65-1036-13 receiving line in his last games (average of 7.2 catches, 115.1 yards, and 1.4 TD per game). I believe Boutte is the best receiver in America.

The defense returns five starters. Three front-seven defenders were picked in the mid-to-late rounds of this past NFL Draft. But I think LSU will be stronger up-front because they have one of the nation's most feared edge-rushing duos returning in BJ Ojulari and Ali Gaye. The biggest questions come in the secondary, which lost top-three pick Derek Stingley, potential R1 draft prospect Eli Ricks (Alabama) and R3 nickel Cordale Flott. But that's overstating things since Stingley and Ricks both missed the majority of last season with injury (combining for only one pass defensed). The injury issues allowed LSU's young backups to get time, and the Tigers now return eight defensive backs who've started at least one game.

I like this LSU team, and think they could be sneaky-scary if a few things break right. But Kelly has a treacherous Year 1 schedule to navigate. The opener against Florida State in New Orleans ain't a picnic, and the Week 12 OOC against UAB isn't the freebie that most other SEC programs scheduled for themselves. In SEC play, home games against Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi loom, as do road trips to Auburn, Florida, Arkansas and A&M. We're too close to the margins to bet on this one.

Not so long ago, Lane Kiffin was considered one of the most loathsome coaches in all of football, not liked by either college football or NFL fans. But after going through Nick Saban's rehabilitation camp (as Bama OC), and after succeeding as FAU HC and now at Mississippi with a tweaked personality — still brash, but with silliness replacing smugness as Kiffin's defining personality trait — he's loved by most everyone not living in California or Knoxville. Last season, Kiffin got pelted by golf balls and batteries by Tennessee fans and stuck around the field for a post-game interview to crack jokes about it.

Whereas Kiffin was self-assured intractable (cocky) early in his coaching career, he's now self-assured flexible (confident). An improviser and a problem-solver. Case in point: Kiffin broke through with a 10-3 record last season, but his team had six starters picked in April's NFL Draft, including face-of-the-program QB Matt Corral and the team's most-talented defender, R2 EDGE Sam Williams. So Kiffin made lemonade. In a historic offseason of player movement, Kiffin became The Portal King, signing 17 transfers, including nine rated as four-stars by 247Sports (the next-highest program in highest combined four and five-star transfer signings, USC, signed seven).

The Rebels have 12 returning starters, but the fate of the team lies in the hands of that No. 2 ranked portal crop (if you remove the players Lincoln Riley brought with him from Oklahoma, Mississippi would be No. 1). QB Jaxson Dart, ironically via USC, where he was displaced by the sudden arrival of Caleb Williams, was a fabulous signing to replace Corral. The RB room became one of the nation's best with the signings of transfers Zach Evans and Ulysses Bentley, whose skillsets perfectly complement one another. This year's offense should out-score last year's output with a banged-up Corral. The defense has seven starters back, and seven more instant-impact transfers added. That unit should be a little better, with improved depth.

Mississippi might have the easiest four-game OOC schedule in the conference. The Rebels are very likely to be 4-0 heading into October. Even with my numbers suggesting a modest 4.3 conference wins — going 4-4 — my projections remain bullish on this over. The Rebels are fortunate to avoid Georgia and Tennessee in cross-over play.

How you see Auburn says more about you than Auburn. Similar to the situations at TCU and Penn State in other P5 conferences, Auburn is a team with several things going for it, and several things going against it. But the stakes are much higher at Auburn this year than in those other places.

The case for: You saw the vision during the 6-2 start last year. And this team is improved over that one. Auburn ranks middle-of-the-pack in returning production (13 returning starters), but only one departing player got picked in the NFL Draft. Last year's rushing offense that ranked No. 3 EPA/rush gets star RB Tank Bigsby and four starting offensive linemen back. Last year's defense finished No. 17 SP+. This year's version has a legitimate chance to crack the top 10 with one of the nation's best defensive lines.

The case against: Auburn will have a good rushing attack, and solid overall defense — nobody disputes this. The issue is everything else. The passing offense that finished No. 59 last year isn't going to improve much, if at all. TJ Finley is the frontrunner to replace Bo Nix (Oregon). Finley provides better decision-making through the air (PFF big-time throw to turnover-worthy throw ratio of 4.0 to Nix's 1.3), at the cost of accuracy (Finley had an adjusted accuracy rate of 60.7% last year to Nix's 73.2%) and mobility (Nix is a threat to keep or scramble, Finley is not). If the passing offense doesn't improve, the offense categorically can't, because the running attack doesn't have much room to improve. The defense is strong up front, but we don't know how the secondary is going to look. And if this team starts going south, things are going to fall apart quickly. We know the boosters wanted HC Bryan Harsin out, and they'll be happy to foot the bill to start the coaching search early this fall if given the opportunity.

Add one more data point to The Case Against: Auburn faces Phil Steele's No. 1 strength of schedule. Auburn will devour two cupcakes to start but then embark upon a 10-game gauntlet. The Penn State game is a coinflip proposition, and WKU can't be considered a sure-win. Auburn is one of only two teams (Mississippi State is the other) who must play Alabama, Georgia and Texas A&M. But Auburn is aided in having four likely home wins in the schedule, with only two likely losses (at Bama and at Georgia). The other six games have projected spreads under a touchdown either way (and Auburn is only a projected underdog in two, with one projected pick 'em). If the Tigers take care of business in their four easiest games (ATL gives them a 98% chance of going 4-0 in those games), Auburn would only need to go 2-4 in the six toss-ups to go over (ATL projects 2.8 wins in those games). This number is too sharp to bet.

The 2020 Florida Gators had one of the most fun passing offenses of the past five years in college football. The 2021 Florida Gators were one of the five-most dysfunctional programs in America. The wheels fell off quickly for Dan Mullen — underwhelming recruiting catching up to underwhelming player development, Mullen trying to outrun both with increasingly bizarre personnel decisions. First was the decision to bring back OL coach John Hevesy and DC Todd Grantham, both of whom had drawn intense criticism for worsening units.

Mullen was forced to fire both in early November in a last-ditch effort to hang on. Mullen didn't appear to be fit to make decisions on Florida's depth chart either, starting an inferior quarterback (Emory Jones over Anthony Richardson), and only giving RB Dameon Pierce, PFF's No. 1 graded RB, 105 total touches on offense. New HC Billy Napier is an upgrade by merely not being Mullen. But Napier, a Nick Saban disciple, will also bring a sense of direction to a program that suddenly lost its rudder during the ugly end to Mullen's reign (which included a 2-9 skid against P5 teams).

Richardson is his undisputed starter, and a great fit for Napier's scheme, which makes good use of its quarterback's legs even on passing concepts. Last year's offensive line sagged to No. 80 in my rankings but will improve with four starters back, developing a new position coach. The defense, which was a beautiful mess in the final days of Grantham's reign, should be far less susceptible to getting ripped for big plays. The biggest loss was CB Kaiir Elam, who was left stranded by Grantham more often than the cast of Lost and was a R1 pick in April. But the rest of the starters in the secondary return, so that unit should be in okay shape.

The OOC slate includes two difficult matchups that I project Florida to be small underdogs in. In SEC play, Florida is only projected underdogs in three games, but all of them are brutal road trips — at Tennessee, at Georgia and at Texas A&M. This number has vacillated between 7 and 7.5 this summer. Either way, we're right in line with my projections, so I'm passing.

I definitely thought Arkansas was making a mistake hiring HC Sam Pittman, and it became apparent quickly that I was definitely wrong. Pittman's first team went 3-7 during the COVID season in 2020, but all 10 of those games were against SEC opponents. Arkansas was an underdog in all 10 games but was very close to going 6-4, with three losses by a field goal or less. Pittman's second team took the step from competitive but overmatched to a legitimate contender, going 9-4.

The Hogs went 8-1 in home or neutral games, but a meager 1-3 in true road games. Of course, those games were at LSU, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama. This year's team also profiles as a squad that should win all the games it's supposed to while struggling when stepping up in competition. OC Kendal Briles' offense returns seven starters, including the quarterback, a deep RB room and four starters along the offensive line. Arkansas signed Oklahoma transfer WR Jadon Hasselwood in an attempt to replace Trelon Burks' production.

Only four starters return on defense. But of those who departed, only two were taken in the NFL Draft, both in the late rounds. Pittman took to the transfer portal to try to plug numerous holes. DC Barry Odom is very good at what he does, but it would be surprising if the defense didn't take a small step back from last year's No. 27 SP+ finish. The Hogs hope that any loss on defense is offset by gains made on offense.

The Hogs have a 10-2 ceiling this year, with only one brutal road trip (Texas A&M) and one brutal home game (Alabama). But the floor is 4-8. With six different games on the schedule featuring projected spreads of 3.5 or less either way, Pittman's in-game meddle will be put to great use this fall. I'm going to follow my numbers' conviction on the under due to my questions about the defense.

Kentucky was a much different team last year than it had been in previous seasons. Notably more explosive, with a passing game that actually scared opponents, the Wildcats finished No. 21 SP+ offensively. The trade-off was that Kentucky was much more reckless with the ball, finishing No. 126 with a -11 turnover rate. QB Will Levis and his 13 INT get most of the blame for that (to be fair Levis is also responsible for the enormous leap the passing offense took). But the truth is that bad luck also played a big part.

Kentucky lost a larger percentage of its fumbles than random chance would dictate (10 total, to place it near the top of the nation in lost fumbles), and a larger percentage of Levis' iffy passes were picked off. Levis threw 13 INT with a 2.6% PFF turnover-worthy throw rate, whereas, for example, Hendon Hooker threw only three INT with a 2.1% TWT rate (on 30 fewer attempts). Per SP+, Kentucky lost an average of 3.7 points every game to bad turnover luck alone (those four points would have come in handy in the 45-42 loss to Tennessee, amirite?).

Kentucky managed to go 10-3 anyway. The good news, flipping the page to this year, is that a normalization of luck on the turnover front alone is going to instantly make this team a little better. Last year's offensive line ranked No. 3 nationally in my rankings, but that unit lost three starters who were taken in April's draft. Fortunately, a deep stable of backs returns and Levis should be even better in 2022. The losses of WR Wan'Dale Robinson and EDGE Josh Pascual must be addressed. But the defense should remain solid. For all the differences in last year's team, one remained: The intense desire to control the clock and slow the game (No. 11 in time of possession), which plays into the hands of the always well-coached, always physical Wildcats defense.

Kentucky is fortunate to play eight home games. None of the four road games are unwinnable, and the OOC slate is decidedly on the easier side in comparison to UK's conference mates. My numbers see an 8-4 team, and that's exactly what I see. So does, apparently, Vegas. Pass.

  
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