In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question – i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.
Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the Pac-12.
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Independents
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Sun Belt
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MAC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MWC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: CUSA
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: AAC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 10
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 12
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: SEC
- 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: ACC
Thor Nystrom's College Football Power Rankings for Every Team >>
Utah Utes
| Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
| Utah | Florida | Sat, Sep 3 | -3 | 0.594 |
| Southern Utah | Utah | Sat, Sep 10 | -46 | 1 |
| San Diego St. | Utah | Sat, Sep 17 | -24 | 1 |
| Utah | Arizona St. | Sat, Sep 24 | -7.5 | 0.781 |
| Oregon St. | Utah | Sat, Oct 1 | -17.5 | 1 |
| Utah | UCLA | Sat, Oct 8 | -6.5 | 0.724 |
| USC | Utah | Sat, Oct 15 | -9.5 | 0.811 |
| Utah | Washington St. | Thur, Oct 27 | -14.5 | 0.949 |
| Arizona | Utah | Sat, Nov 5 | -25.5 | 1 |
| Stanford | Utah | Sat, Nov 12 | -21.5 | 1 |
| Utah | Oregon | Sat, Nov 19 | -2 | 0.535 |
| Utah | Colorado | Sat, Nov 26 | -21.5 | 1 |
This profiles to be Kyle Whittingham's best team. The Utes now have a legitimate top-20 offense to go with their always legitimate top-20 defense. Eight starters return on that offense, including breakout QB Cam Rising. Rising's dual-threat game was a perfect fit next to hammer back RB Tavion Thompson, who punched in 21 TD last year. Utah's power-game ethos is aided by one of the nation's premier TE duos.
The defense must replace LBs Devon Lloyd and Neifi Sewell but should remain a top-20 unit. Utah is counting on Florida transfer LB Mo Diabate to provide an immediate impact. The corners are top-notch. And Utah's front is rangy and active, stocked with future NFL talent.
- Thor's projected win total: 10.4
- Las Vegas win total: 8.5
- Thor's bet: OVER
The Utes should be considered heavy favorites in the Pac-12 and legitimate CFP contenders. They are not being treated as such by the sportsbooks. Take the over all day.
Oregon Ducks
| Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
| Oregon | Georgia | Sat, Sep 3 | 14 | 0.076 |
| Eastern Washington | Oregon | Sat, Sep 10 | -41.5 | 1 |
| Brigham Young | Oregon | Sat, Sep 17 | -3.5 | 0.643 |
| Oregon | Washington St. | Sat, Sep 24 | -10.5 | 0.86 |
| Stanford | Oregon | Sat, Oct 1 | -16.5 | 0.998 |
| Oregon | Arizona | Sat, Oct 8 | -16 | 0.981 |
| UCLA | Oregon | Sat, Oct 22 | -7 | 0.752 |
| Oregon | California | Sat, Oct 29 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
| Oregon | Colorado | Sat, Nov 5 | -17.5 | 1 |
| Washington | Oregon | Sat, Nov 12 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
| Utah | Oregon | Sat, Nov 19 | 2 | 0.465 |
| Oregon | Oregon St. | Fri, Nov 25 | -8 | 0.791 |
The Ducks have 15 returning starters, including a new backfield. Middle-of-the-road QB Anthony Brown cedes to above-average-via-high-variance-play Bo Nix. Steady workhorse RB Travis Dye cedes to electric Byron Cardwell (and a small handful of ballyhooed youngsters working in behind him). An OL returning four starters was augmented by a top-five JUCO transfer signing. It's a top-five overall national unit.
Defense is new HC Dan Lanning's bread and butter, of course, and the former Georgia DC should be able to coax improvement out of this bunch in Year 1 despite the loss of EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux. Last year's DL actually wasn't good, ranking No. 113 in sack rate and No. 84 in line YPC allowed – so this year's can't help but improve. The LB corps is awesome, a top-5 national unit with two legitimate stars. The secondary is the open question, replacing three of five starters. How quickly Lanning can build that group up will inform this unit's ceiling.
- Thor's projected win total: 9.3
- Las Vegas win total: 8.5
- Thor's bet: Pass
Quite the poetic symmetry with the opener in Atlanta against Lanning's former Georgia Bulldog team, isn't it? That isn't Oregon's only difficult OOC game, but fortunately, the Ducks get BYU at home later in September. My numbers advocate for an over play, but I'm going to pass solely because I don't trust Bo Nix.
USC Trojans
| Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
| Rice | USC | Sat, Sep 3 | -30.5 | 1 |
| USC | Stanford | Sat, Sep 10 | -9 | 0.807 |
| Fresno St. | USC | Sat, Sep 17 | -12 | 0.885 |
| USC | Oregon St. | Sat, Sep 24 | -6 | 0.707 |
| Arizona St. | USC | Sat, Oct 1 | -7.5 | 0.781 |
| Washington St. | USC | Sat, Oct 8 | -14 | 0.924 |
| USC | Utah | Sat, Oct 15 | 9.5 | 0.189 |
| USC | Arizona | Sat, Oct 29 | -13.5 | 0.9 |
| California | USC | Sat, Nov 5 | -16.5 | 0.998 |
| Colorado | USC | Fri, Nov 11 | -20.5 | 1 |
| USC | UCLA | Sat, Nov 19 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Notre Dame | USC | Sat, Nov 26 | 3 | 0.406 |
HC Lincoln Riley. QB Caleb Williams. RB Travis Dye. WR Mario Williams. WR Jordan Addison. In an unprecedented offseason of college football, USC stole the show. The Trojans' 20-man portal class easily ranks as the best in college football history. Per PFF, the Trojans' 1.57 wins shares gained in the portal are the most-ever signed. Frankly, we are in uncharted territory: No program's roster and staff have ever changed this drastically year over year.
The single-most predictive factor in preseason models is the previous season's results. Those aren't applicable here, clearly. My power rankings have the Trojans leaping 38 spots. That's tied for the largest jump in the nation. You might be asking – why not more? General questions about new players meshing into new schemes and more specific questions about Riley's Year 1 defense. DC Alex Grinch and his assistants recently were wry in public comments with the media about the defense's progress in practices. It's going to take time. Too much going on with that side of the ball to put the Trojans in the preseason top-30.
- Thor's projected win total: 9.1
- Las Vegas win total: 9.5
- Thor's bet: Pass
Riley's first USC offense is going to be great. The defense will be a work-in-progress. The objectively fair number is “9.” I'm still passing at 9.5, but I did think about going under.
UCLA Bruins
| Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
| Bowling Green | UCLA | Sat, Sep 3 | -24.5 | 1 |
| Alabama St. | UCLA | Sat, Sep 10 | -37 | 1 |
| South Alabama | UCLA | Sat, Sep 17 | -21 | 1 |
| UCLA | Colorado | Sat, Sep 24 | -12.5 | 0.887 |
| Washington | UCLA | Fri, Sep 30 | -3.5 | 0.643 |
| Utah | UCLA | Sat, Oct 8 | 6.5 | 0.277 |
| UCLA | Oregon | Sat, Oct 22 | 7 | 0.248 |
| Stanford | UCLA | Sat, Oct 29 | -11.5 | 0.882 |
| UCLA | Arizona St. | Sat, Nov 5 | 1 | 0.488 |
| UCLA | Arizona | Sat, Nov 12 | -11.5 | 0.882 |
| USC | UCLA | Sat, Nov 19 | 0 | 0.5 |
| UCLA | California | Fri, Nov 25 | -8.5 | 0.802 |
College football is better with Chip Kelly, and for that reason, it was nice to see Kelly return to solid ground with an 8-4 record in Year 4 at UCLA after failing to win more than four games in any of his first three. Despite having only eight starters back this fall, there's a good chance that Kelly is about to improve on that showing.
The most important starters return on offense in the form of the dynamic backfield duo of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson and RB Zach Charbonnet. A strong trio of receivers joins them. Three returning starters on the OL are joined by a former starter returning from injury and a stud transfer import. The defense returns only two starters, but Chip earned his paycheck this offseason by winning multiple high-profile competitions for portal-play defenders*.
*(plug-and-play, but for the portal – let's make it a thing)
- Thor's projected win total: 8.6
- Las Vegas win total: 8
- Thor's bet: Pass
Laughably easy schedule – a P5 playing Phil Steele's No. 75 SOS (a handful of G5 teams play tougher)! In lieu of that, it's surprising that Vegas has installed the Bruins with a flat “8” number. That's likely due to UCLA'S low number of returning starters. On the other hand, Chip, DTR, and Charbonnet are back off an 8-win season, UCLA just signed the No. 8 transfer portal class, and there's a good chance that the Bruins will be favored by more than a TD in seven games this fall based on matchup alone.
Washington Huskies
| Away | Home | Day | Spread | Win odds |
| Kent St. | Washington | Sat, Sep 3 | -43 | 1 |
| Portland St. | Washington | Sat, Sep 10 | -35.5 | 1 |
| Michigan St. | Washington | Sat, Sep 17 | 4 | 0.342 |
| Stanford | Washington | Sat, Sep 24 | -10.5 | 0.86 |
| Washington | UCLA | Fri, Sep 30 | 3.5 | 0.357 |
| Washington | Arizona St. | Sat, Oct 8 | 2.5 | 0.455 |
| Arizona | Washington | Sat, Oct 15 | -14.5 | 0.949 |
| Washington | California | Sat, Oct 22 | -7 | 0.752 |
| Oregon St. | Washington | Fri, Nov 4 | -7 | 0.752 |
| Washington | Oregon | Sat, Nov 12 | 8.5 | 0.198 |
| Colorado | Washington | Sat, Nov 19 | -16 | 0.981 |
| Washington | Washington St. | Sat, Nov 26 | -4 | 0.658 |
The Jimmy Lake era was a trainwreck. Under UW's former DB coach, the Huskies finished No. 2 EPA/pass but No. 98 or worse in everything else. Washington goes from a coach who appeared to not realize the team played offense to a coach renowned as an offensive guru. Kalen DeBoer, in turn, gives the keys to old friend QB Michael Penix Jr. (officially, as of Tuesday), the dual threat with a live arm that he coached at Indiana. Injuries have been a bugaboo – he's suffered four season-ending injuries – but Penix could turn this offense around if healthy. UW has strong talent at receiver, but nobody knows it because the QB play and schematics have been so bad.
The Huskies managed to finish No. 113 in EPA/run allowed last season despite the presence of third-team All-P12 DT Tuli Letuligasenoa, PFF's highest-graded iDL. Deboer signed a 335-pound JUCO NG to start next to him. There will obviously be some regression on pass defense after losing star CB Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon to the NFL Draft. But the enormous gains about to be made on run defense should more than offset them.
- Thor's projected win total: 8.3
- Las Vegas win total: 7.5
- Thor's bet: OVER
Remember what we were saying about how easy UCLA's schedule is? Washington's is almost as easy (Steele ranks it No. 72). Whereas UCLA plays three OOC cupcakes, and UW plays two cupcakes. In the third, the Huskies welcome Michigan State to Seattle. But things break right for the Huskies in P12 play, where the Huskies avoid both Utah and USC.