2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 12

In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question – i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.

Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the Big 12.

• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Independents
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Sun Belt
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MAC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MWC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: CUSA
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: AAC

College Football: Best Early Heisman Futures Bets >>

Texas Longhorns

Texas was considerably better than its 5-7 record last year – five losses during the catastrophic six-game losing streak came by one possession. But 5-7 is 5-7, and it's not acceptable in Austin, so HC Steve Sarkisian aggressively remade the roster. The Longhorns were the only program to sign a top-five recruiting class and top-five transfer portal crop, per 247Sports' rankings. The Longhorns only signed seven transfers, but they made them count: Five are projected starters, and the other two will be heavily involved in the WR rotation.

QB Quinn Ewers is the headliner, a ballyhooed five-star who's drawn ubiquitous comps to Matthew Stafford. Ewers should supercharge the passing game along with what has become one of the nation's best receiving corps (transfers Isaiah Neyor, Agiye Hall and Tarique Milton join star WR Xavier Worthy). Texas' import of Pitt WR coach Brennan Marion, who helped spur an enormous jump in Pitt's passing game last year, was inspired – I'd bet Marion is an FBS OC this time next year. With Bijan Robinson, Texas boasts the best RB in the nation, and this time around, Robinson will be running behind a line that should be much improved.

The defense finished a mediocre No. 67 SP+ last year and simply must improve. The good news is that seven starters return on that side of the ball. In addition, Texas welcomed two projected starters from the portal. Year after year, it's a fool's errand to predict “Texas is back.” Call me a fool, but I think UT will win the Big 12 this year.

• Thor's projected win total: 9.4
• Las Vegas win total: 8.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

The Longhorns will almost assuredly lose at home to Alabama, the nation's best team. Outside of that, my numbers favor the Horns by more than seven points in every other game but two: the neutral-site game against Oklahoma (UT -3.5) and the road game at Oklahoma State (UT -3.5). The Longhorns could lose all three of those games and still go over this number. And it sure helps that two other tricky in-conference matchups – TCU and Baylor – will be played in Austin. Give me the over.

Oklahoma Sooners

The Sooners, off an 11-2 season, were far better than Texas last year. But whereas the Longhorns' offseason ethos was add-add-add, Oklahoma's, for a spell, was stop-the-bleeding. Numerous big names left the program. HC Lincoln Riley, DC Alex Grinch, QB Caleb Williams and WR Mario Williams defected to USC. QB Spencer Rattler and TE Austin Stogner went to South Carolina, WR Jadon Haselwood to Arkansas and S Patrick Fields to Stanford.

Former UCF QB Dillon Gabriel takes over for Williams. Gabriel should be considered a downgrade, but he's still a top-25 national quarterback who threw for over 8,000 yards at UCF. As a bonus, he already knows the offense. WR Marvin Mims will be asked to assume a much-larger target share than last year with the other four of the top-five pass-catchers gone. RB Eric Gray, who couldn't overtake Kennedy Brooks last season, is first-in-line for a bell-cow role.

The defense lost three key contributors to the NFL (Perrion Winfrey, Nik Bonitto and Isaiah Thomas). But that defense disappointed last year (No. 56), and it returns a lot of contributors outside the aforementioned three (No. 12 nationally in returning production on defense). The unit is now also overseen by one of the great modern defensive play-callers (HC Brent Venables). The Sooners should improve at least a little on that side of the ball.

• Thor's projected win total: 9.6
• Las Vegas win total: 9.5
• Thor's bet: Pass

I have serious questions about this Oklahoma team following the turbulent offseason. Though I'd love to bet the under, I cannot for two reasons:

1) The Vegas number, accounting for all the above, is spot-on

2) Oklahoma gets very fortunate with the schedule.

The Sooner only play Phil Steele's No. 41 strength of schedule, largely thanks to non-con dates with UTEP and Kent State and the Big 12 being down. The Sooners could qualitatively take a tangible step back this year and theoretically still finish 10-2. Margins are too close to bet it.

Baylor Bears

The Bears improved from 2-7 in HC Dave Aranda's first season to 12-2 last year. Baylor’s remarkably balanced team finished No. 10 SP+ in offense and defense. Though a respectable 12 starters return, Baylor is only No. 122 in returning production after losing; starting QB (Gerry Bohanon), a 2,400-yard backfield duo (Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner), the top-three WRs (Tyquan Thornton, RJ Sneed, and Drew Estrada), and four of the team's best defenders (LB Terrel Bernard, CB Raleigh Texada, S Jalen Pitre and S JT Woods).

Incumbents generally don't lose their jobs before summer camp begins, but when they do, they don't stick around. The losses of Smith, Thornton, Bernard and Pitre sting. Others are overstated. Bohanon left because the staff either implicitly or explicitly asked him to after naming QB Blake Shapen the starter out of the spring. Baylor feels strongly that it's upgrading at the position (Shapen's MVP performance in the B12 title game would suggest the same). Similarly, at WR, Sneed was easily dispatched as WR1 last year by Thornton, and the staff appeared to prefer to move forward with a younger group headlined by Armani Winfield, Monaray Baldwin and Hal Presley.

It's going to be weird to watch this defense without ball-hawking extraordinaires Bernard and Pitre flying around. But Baylor returns a round-one prospect on that side with NT Siaki Ika, and a tackle machine in the gap-plugging LB Dillon Doyle. Baylor may not finish among the top-10 defenses again, but it's not likely to drop out of the top 20, either.

• Thor's projected win total: 8.4
• Las Vegas win total: 7.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

In OOC play, Baylor has two free wins and a coin flip game at BYU. In the conference slate, Baylor gets TCU and Oklahoma State at home but must travel to Texas and Oklahoma. With this number giving us the leeway to lose four games and still go over, I like Baylor's odds of cashing those over tickets. Aranda is a rock-solid coach, and his roster didn't fall off as much as many seem to believe. The Bears are still very much Big 12 title contenders.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Last year's 12-2 campaign tied for the most season wins in the HC Mike Gundy era. The Pokes were centimeters away from a Big 12 title, denied by a Baylor goal-line stand in a 21-16 loss. This year, the Pokes return seven starters on offense, including the quarterback and four of his offensive linemen. Improved line play will aid QB Spencer Sanders, a decent starting P5 dual-threat with one fatal flaw: Decision-making under pressure.

Sanders' 91.0 PFF grade in clean pockets (69.7% completions) torpedoed to 62.4 under pressure (41.7%). Last year's offensive line finished No. 69 in my OL rankings. This year's group has a real shot to go from slightly below-average to above-average in the FBS with four starters back. The offense loses RB1 Jaylen Warren and WR1 Tay Martin (both UDFAs). RB Dominic Richardson approximated Warren's value last year when called upon, and Gundy's conveyor belt will assuredly drop a WR1 who posts enormous numbers (Jaden Bray?). There's a decent chance that the offense, which finished No. 34 SP+ last year, will be a little better.

On the other side of the ball, OSU is certain to be worse. The Pokes were dominant defensively in 2021, finishing No. 4 SP+ while leading the nation with 57 sacks. That unit was decimated over the offseason, losing DC Jim Knowles to Ohio State and seven starters to graduation. The new-look defense, which ranks No. 128 nationally in returning production, is installing new DC Derek Mason's 3-4 base/2-4-5 nickel scheme as we speak. Last year's defense allowed only 18.1 PPG. In 2019, the last time OSU had four starters returning on defense, it allowed 26.8 PPG. OSU will fall somewhere between those numbers this fall – exactly where is anyone's guess.

• Thor's projected win total: 8
• Las Vegas win total: 8.5
• Thor's bet: UNDER

My numbers project Oklahoma State as single-digit underdogs in four games, and single-digit favorites in four others, leaving a large band of outcomes. Last year, OSU went 6-2 in games decided by single digits. The Pokes' defensive trump card often tilted coinflip games in OSU's favor, standing strong even when stranded in bad spots by a Sanders turnover. This year's team won't have that same trump card. The defensive dropoff will outpace whatever small offensive gains are made. I'm going under.

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU is a fascinating choose-your-own-adventure thought exercise. You be the judge.

Optimist:' TCU returns 18 starters and ranks No. 9 in Phil Steele's returning experience chart. The issues with last year's team were the passing game and the defense, which are likely to improve significantly. QB Max Duggan, the starter for most of last season, finished No. 19 in the FBS in turnover-worthy throw rate and No. 73 in adjusted accuracy. Duggan's a tough runner with a big arm, but his spotty accuracy and quizzical decisions hurt the offense.

QB Chandler Morris was sensational in the upset of Baylor in relief of an injured Duggan the week Gary Patterson was fired and appears to be a far better fit for new HC Sonny Dykes' Air Raid offense. TCU has one of the best receivers in America in Quentin Johnston and four starters returning along an offensive line that finished a solid No. 38 in my rankings last year. Last year's defense gave up 10.7 PPG more than it gave up the year before. It will likely be closer to its 2020 number (24.2) than 2021 (34.9), with eight starters returning.

Pessimist:' Last year's team had 18 returning starters, too, Mr. Optimist! And that's the team that got legendary HC Gary Patterson fired. New HC Dykes has a lot of returning experience, sure. But let's not kid ourselves. TCU has been 16-18 since 2019, and it hasn't won more than seven games in a season since 2017. Also, this offseason, it lost one of its best players when five-star starter RB Zach Evans defected to the Portal King of Mississippi.

Dykes has a proven track record, but he went 5-7 in his first year at SMU amid enormous schematic changes, as Dykes was forced to use square pegs recruited for another system in the round holes of the Air Raid. Similar schematic changes are happening at TCU right now, with the Air Raid on offense and defense, from Patterson's patented 4-2-5 to a 3-3-5.

• Thor's projected win total: 7.5
• Las Vegas win total: 6.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

With nine games featuring projected single-digit spreads, TCU is a high-variance proposition. We know the offensive line will be good, and we know the defense will be better (it can't be worse). There's also a strong possibility of significantly improving the passing offense. The Evans defection didn't destroy the rushing attack because RB Kendre Miller is back (Miller stepped up after Evans' injury last year, averaging more YPC and catching more balls). I'm not as concerned by the scheme changes as I might be in another case because this team’s personnel fits smoothly into the new schemes. I think the Horned Frogs surprise folks this fall.

Kansas State Wildcats

  
Read Full Article ➡