2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: ACC

In the article below, college football expert Thor Nystrom projects the spread for every game using his ATL system (Adjusted Thor Spread). These spreads are from the perspective of the team in question – i.e., Army is a +2.5 underdog at Coastal Carolina and a -5 favorite hosting UTSA.

Here are his total win projections, odds, and picks for the ACC.

• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Independents
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Sun Belt
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MAC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: MWC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: CUSA
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: AAC
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 10
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: Big 12
• 2022 College Football Win Total Projections, Odds & Picks: SEC

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Clemson Tigers

Clemson reached 10 wins for the 11th-consecutive season in 2021 despite ranking No. 112 EPA/pass and No. 117 passing explosion. The Tigers had every opportunity to address their quarterback issue in an offseason that featured unprecedented transfer movement, particularly at the signal-calling position. Instead, HC Dabo Swinney decided to ignore the portal – a longtime philosophy he has quadrupled down on – and roll it back with QB D.J. Uiagalelei, whose struggles derailed the offense last year.

Swinney has one bullet – and one bullet only – if Uiagalelei stinks again: five-star, top-10 overall recruit QB Cade Klubnik. The situation is eerily similar to Trevor Lawrence's true freshman season when Lawrence signed with a national contender with an established-but-mediocre veteran starting QB in Kelly Bryant. Lawrence wrestled the job away from Bryant by late September. Clemson's QB situation bears close watching again early this fall. Whoever is behind center is praying for better OL play this fall.

Elsewhere, Clemson is breaking in new coordinators after former OC Tony Eliot and DC Brent Venables left to take HC jobs this offseason. Swinney replaced both with internal options. Clemson had a top-three defense last year despite getting left out to dry by the offense and dealing with injuries. Clemson's front seven is easily the nation's best. This defensive line will remind you of your older brother's title-winning Tigers' defensive lines. Will this team likewise turn to a freshman QB to spark the offense for a playoff run?

• Thor's projected win total: 10.8
• Las Vegas win total: 10.5
• Thor's bet: Pass

I absolutely love the defense – it's undoubtedly championship caliber. But the quarterback position is a real problem. Uiagalelei has now posted a 14/10 TD/INT ratio over 491 career passing attempts. Kelly Bryant was yanked after a 16/10 TD/INT ratio over 470 attempts. Unless Uiagalelei is magically a different player, or Klubnik is a young Lawrence, this team is just as tragically flawed as last year's team. That's still probably good enough to go 10-2, but that'd go under. I have to pass.

Miami Hurricanes

When QB1 D'Eriq King got hurt, and QB2 Tyler Van Dyke took over last year, I immediately assumed the HC Manny Diaz era was over. And I was right about that – but very much not in the way I expected to be. Far from the offense devolving into a joke, Van Dyke was a ready-made star who gave it a jolt. Van Dyke's lost his first two starts to FBS teams by a combined five points. Then he led the Hurricanes to five-of-six wins to close the season. Miami fired Diaz anyway, paving the way for Mario Cristobal's hiring. Cristobal added former Michigan OC Josh Gattis to call plays.

Gattis should make good use of Van Dyke's NFL arm. Last year, Van Dyke finished No. 2 in PFF big-time throw rate. And though this is Cristobal's first Miami team, it will very much be in line with the trench-play ethos we saw at Oregon. The Canes return three starters on the offensive line and have one of the nation's best sets of offensive tackles. The defensive line isn't as established, but it was the area Cristobal hit hardest in the transfer portal, signing several high-ceiling candidates for immediate playing time.

Just as Miami's defensive line expects to take a jump forward from its average play last year, improvement is also expected out of the secondary. Miami added South Beach native CB Tyrique Stevenson in the portal from Georgia. Stevenson, who spent the last two years in the slot, wanted to play his last year at home on the outside. Meanwhile, this is probably the year we're getting the star-leap out of 2021 five-star S James Williams.

• Thor's projected win total: 9.4
• Las Vegas win total: 8.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

Cristobal is set up to win quickly. He's got the personnel for it, including a round-one QB prospect, good line play and good team speed. The schedule is also manageable. Three cupcakes arrive in the OOC, and my numbers favor Miami by at least five points in seven different conference games.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

This summer's sleeper du jour. Coming off a 9-3 season, NC State ranks No. 8 nationally in returning production. The Wolfpack return NFL prospect QB Devin Leary among seven starters on offense, as well as 10 starters on defense. Perhaps because of all the returning talent, the Pack mostly steered clear of the transfer portal. The biggest loss on offense was OT Ikem Ekwonu, and he's obviously a huge one.

But the other four starters on the offensive line are back (95 career starts), so that unit should be stabilized. Leary takes care of the ball as much as any QB in the nation while still consistently threatening the defense deep. DC Tony Gibson's 3-3-5 defense does a great job of stifling running games, generating pressure and confusing quarterbacks. With so much experience back, it could match last year's top-15 SP+ finish.

• Thor's projected win total: 9.3
• Las Vegas win total: 8.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

What's not to like? NC State proved the concept last year, and most of the band is back together. The schedule is manageable. My numbers give NC State roughly an 85% chance of emerging undefeated from its four OOC games. The toughie of in-conference play is the road game at Clemson, but that one isn't unwinnable. And my numbers project NC State as favorites in the other seven ACC games.

Pittsburgh Panthers

Last year, Pitt went 11-3 and won the ACC title with a Heisman finalist QB and a Biletnikoff-winning WR. But after losing QB Kenny Pickett (and CB Damarri Mathis) to the NFL Draft, WR Jordan Addison to the transfer portal and multiple important assistants to other staffs, Pitt is likely to take a normalizing step backward in 2022. HC Pat Narduzzi is attempting to replace Pickett and Addison with portal adds QB Kedon Slovis (former USC starter) and WR Konata Mumpfield (96th percentile separation rate against single coverage, per PFF).

The Panthers’ passing attack will not only have lesser personnel, but it may struggle acclimating to life without OC Mark Whipple and WR Brennan Marion. Pitt has a deep stable of backs and expects to run more this year to offset losses in the passing game. Last year's defense ranked No. 2 in sacks per game and No. 5 in EPA/run and returned seven starters, six of whom were all-conference. Last year's unit finished No. 29 SP+. This year's looks like top-25 quality.

• Thor's projected win total: 9.3
• Las Vegas win total: 8.5
• Thor's bet: Pass

Pitt's magical 2021 season crossed a talent zenith with an ACC low-point. Pitt's schedule ranked No. 60 SP+. Though the ACC should be better this year, Pitt ducks Clemson this time around. Pitt doesn't have that trump-card passing offense anymore, but it shouldn't fall off as much as expected with a better rushing attack and defense. But even though my numbers make a case for the over, I will pass. Pitt can't win in the way it won last year, so this is a totally different squad with less overall talent playing in a conference with a ton of parity. I'm unable to pull the trigger.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville finished 6-7 last year with a top-25 SP+ offense but the No. 64 SP+ defense and No. 79 SP+ special teams. The Cardinals have now had losing seasons in three of the last four years. Multiple factors suggest they'll get back to their winning ways this year. Firstly, Louisville was better than its record last year, finishing with 7.2 second-order wins (+1.2). And the Cardinals have a ton of experience back, with 14 starters returning, seven on each of side of the ball. Louisville augmented that core by absolutely hammering the portal over the offseason.

The offense will go as far as QB Malik Cunningham can take them. Cunningham's OL returns four starters and is one of the conference's best. The RB and WR rooms are both deep, but it would be nice if a star could clearly step forward in each. Scott Satterfield's most aggressive portal work came in the secondary, where he signed six different players with FBS experience. But Satterfield also won highly-competitive portal battles for DL Jermayne Lole and LBs Momo Sanogo and Nicario Harper in the front seven.

• Thor's projected win total: 7.6
• Las Vegas win total: 6.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

Under a new AD and school president, Satterfield is clearly feeling the heat. That became crystal clear with the maniacal way Satterfield attacked the portal. He signed the fifth-most career FBS snaps played among P5 teams. Satterfield will return to stable ground with a strong season, but things could unravel quickly if they start to go the other way. Fortunately for Satterfield, my numbers project Louisville as favorites in the first nine games. And though the Cards are projected 'dogs in the last three, two of those are essentially pick 'ems. Vegas doesn't seem to account for how much talent Louisville picked up in the portal.

Florida State Seminoles

FSU hadn't had a losing season in my lifetime until 2018. That's also now the last year the Seminoles had a winning season. And while I felt FSU could have reinvigorated the program over the winter by hiring favorite son Deion Sanders, I understand why the Seminoles gave HC Mike Norvell one more shot. Norvell looked to be going the way of Willie Taggart early last season, with a 0-4 start that included a home upset loss to an FCS team. But as the obituaries started to come in, the offense rose from the dead during a torrid 5-3. QB Jordan Travis, previously a run-only “dual-threat” behind a bad offensive line, posted an 11/2 TD/INT ratio during those last eight games.

Remember Norvell's devastating offenses at Memphis? With the passing threat, it's close to becoming a reality at FSU: The rushing attack is already on-schedule, as evidenced by FSU ranking No. 4 in explosive runs and No. 6 in red zone TD rate last year. There are also signs that the defense, which returns eight starters as the offense does, is similarly ready for a leap. After coughing up 36.0 PPG in 2020, and 31.75 PPG during the 0-4 start last year, FSU held the final eight opponents to 30 points or less. Norvell also added top-10 overall transfer EDGE Jared Verse (21.5 TFL and 14.5 sacks in 15 games for Albany) to that group.

• Thor's projected win total: 7.7
• Las Vegas win total: 6.5
• Thor's bet: OVER

Last year's team was bad overall, but you could see signs of improvement: The strong finish, the consistently-explosive rushing attack, Travis' improvement as a passer, the defense's finish and overall strength against the run (No. 16 EPA/run). This schedule presents the possibility that FSU could finish anywhere from 4-8 to 12-0. I think 8-4 is the most likely outcome.

North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels managed to rank No. 84 EPA/run and No. 104 EPA/pass last season with a group that just lost QB Sam Howell, RB Ty Chandler, and two starting OL to the NFL Draft (and a third OL starter who signed as a UDFA). In and of itself, that makes projecting this coming year's offense (and overall team) difficult. Last year's team didn't conform to logic, and only five starters returned. So what do we really know? We don't know the identity of the starting QB, though UNC has two former hyped recruits jockeying for the job. We know that WR Josh Downs is one of the best in America (No. 19 in PFF grade; 97th percentile separation rate).

UNC's defense was horrible in every conceivable metric last year. So Brown in essence demoted his co-DCs and brought Gene Chizik and his 4-2-5 back. Chizik told the media this year's defense will focus on minding gaps and winning upfront more while sending less exotic blitzes. There's a real shot this leads to enormous improvement. Though UNC stunk on D last year, it had a stockpile of highly-recruited D-linemen and a group of highly-touted defensive backs. The DL didn't seem to develop in the old system, and last year's secondary was done in by a combination of injuries, penalties, miscues, and being stranded on islands by the coaching staff.

• Thor's projected win total: 7.0
• Las Vegas win total: 7.5
• Thor's bet: UNDER

UNC scheduled a tough four-game OOC slate. Odds are better that the Heels will emerge from that 2-2 or 3-1 than 4-0. The Tar Heels also have a tougher-than-average ACC draw, pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the other side while traveling to Miami. I see a 6-6 or 7-5 season coming.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

  
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