10 betting lessons learned from Week 1
A seven-month honeymoon ended Sunday night, when things got ugly early for Brian Daboll, Daniel Jones and the Giants. The reigning NFL Coach of the Year and his $40 million-a-year quarterback were the toast of the New York media during the offseason. Yet when the season started, the toast quickly turned into a roast.
The Dallas defense scored twice in the first quarter — on a 58-yard blocked field goal return and 22-yard interception return – to put the Giants in a 16-0 hole that would only get deeper. It was a humbling night for Daboll, who soaked in all the praise for months before getting spanked 40-0 by Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy, who’s usually the butt of the jokes.
The Giants finished Daboll’s first season 9-7-1 and won a wild-card playoff game at Minnesota, which was a phony 13-win team. Daboll’s aggressive style made the difference as the Giants thrived in one-score games and reached the playoffs despite a 1-4-1 record in the NFC East. Daboll was on a lucky roll, but gamblers know all about luck running out and regression becoming reality.
“The Giants were all smoke and mirrors last year,” said VSiN analyst Will Hill, who attributed Daboll’s debut season to a weak schedule plus “really good luck and good coaching.”
Hill is not right about all New York teams — he’s holding a World Series futures bet on the Yankees — but he was on target by predicting the Giants’ downfall against the Cowboys. He’s also right about Daboll, who did an outstanding coaching job in 2022 before wearing a dunce cap in the rain-soaked season opener.
Of course, this is Overreaction Monday. No teams are as good or as bad as they appear in Week 1. It’s obviously premature to put the Cowboys in the Super Bowl in Las Vegas and send the Giants to the sewer in Newark. Still, it’s foolish to shrug off a 40-point beating as just one bad day.
The Giants have big problems on their offensive line. Jones was sacked seven times and threw two interceptions in the face of relentless pressure. An errant shotgun snap and 14-yard loss led to the ill-fated field-goal attempt that was blocked and returned the distance. It got worse from there. The embarrassment is pinned on Daboll, whose team was unprepared. Jones, who signed a four-year, $160 million extension in March, had no chance in this one.
Dak Prescott is now 11-0 in starts against the Giants, but this one was not about the Cowboys quarterback being great or McCarthy calling all the right shots. Prescott completed 13 of 24 passes for 143 yards as the Dallas offense produced only 265 total yards.
While handicappers and the media turn on Daboll and the Giants, who attracted a fair amount of sharp betting support as 3-point home underdogs, they will get an opportunity to bounce back at Arizona in Week 2.
Betting against the media-hyped Cowboys is not the brightest idea, mainly due to a Micah Parsons-led Dallas defense that might be the league’s best, and that’s one of 10 betting lessons to take away from Week 1.
The Eagles, who got a lucky win and cover, tend to look ordinary on the road.
Philadelphia was a public side, and arguably the wrong side, but the Eagles covered the closing line of 3.5 in a gift-wrapped 25-20 win at New England. The Patriots committed two turnovers and had three straight three-and-outs on their first five drives while falling behind 16-0.
Las Vegas sportsbooks took a hit on the Eagles’ cover. Westgate SuperBook director John Murray said the day was a “small winner” for his book. “I liked the Patriots +4 a lot,” Murray said. “We really needed the Patriots, and that would have swung the day into a very nice win for us.”
Mac Jones put the ball in the air 54 times and passed for 316 yards and three touchdowns as the Patriots outgained the defending NFC champions 382-251. With 3:37 remaining, a two-point conversion run by Jones was wiped out by a penalty, and his pass fell incomplete on the second attempt.